World Cup 2026

Tournament Simulator

Who wins World Cup 2026?

We run a Monte Carlo simulation of every remaining match 20,000 times, using our model's match probabilities. Each row is a nation's chance to reach every stage and lift the trophy.

Favourite

USA

8.9% to win

#	Team	Grp	1st	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	🏆 ▾
1	USA	B	99.7%	100.0%	65.5%	41.4%	24.6%	15.2%	8.9%
2	France	K	49.9%	100.0%	60.9%	35.3%	19.6%	10.9%	6.1%
3	Argentina	A	99.1%	100.0%	62.5%	32.2%	18.4%	10.5%	6.0%
4	England	H	53.7%	100.0%	59.7%	35.0%	18.9%	10.8%	5.7%
5	Netherlands	L	78.8%	100.0%	54.8%	30.8%	17.5%	9.0%	4.9%
6	Mexico	J	100.0%	100.0%	52.3%	28.9%	14.6%	8.3%	4.5%
7	Canada	D	–	100.0%	51.1%	27.4%	15.0%	8.3%	4.3%
8	Morocco	E	–	100.0%	48.9%	25.5%	14.1%	7.9%	4.0%
9	Egypt	C	81.3%	100.0%	54.0%	28.3%	14.3%	6.9%	3.7%
10	Spain	F	70.9%	100.0%	54.7%	28.9%	15.0%	7.4%	3.7%
11	Colombia	G	41.5%	100.0%	56.0%	29.0%	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%
12	Ivory Coast	I	–	92.9%	45.1%	24.3%	13.9%	6.8%	3.3%
13	Germany	I	100.0%	100.0%	52.2%	27.3%	12.6%	6.8%	3.3%
14	Brazil	E	100.0%	100.0%	55.2%	26.2%	14.1%	6.7%	3.2%
15	Portugal	G	58.5%	100.0%	55.0%	26.4%	13.0%	6.4%	3.1%
16	Bosnia & Herzegovina	D	–	100.0%	49.4%	24.4%	12.1%	6.0%	3.0%
17	Cape Verde Islands	F	3.7%	82.2%	46.8%	22.2%	11.7%	5.9%	3.0%
18	Norway	K	50.1%	100.0%	53.3%	26.7%	12.6%	5.8%	2.8%
19	Japan	L	17.5%	100.0%	48.7%	24.4%	11.3%	5.6%	2.5%
20	South Korea	J	–	93.2%	43.6%	21.4%	10.3%	4.8%	2.1%
21	Austria	A	0.8%	95.7%	45.8%	24.4%	11.3%	5.0%	2.0%
22	Australia	B	0.3%	92.9%	42.8%	20.3%	9.7%	4.3%	1.9%
23	Sweden	L	3.7%	92.3%	41.5%	19.3%	8.3%	4.0%	1.9%
24	Belgium	C	0.5%	37.9%	21.2%	10.8%	6.0%	3.4%	1.7%
25	Ghana	H	13.5%	100.0%	47.8%	22.5%	9.6%	4.0%	1.6%
26	Uruguay	F	25.4%	51.9%	27.6%	13.3%	6.7%	3.1%	1.5%
27	Croatia	H	32.9%	95.1%	43.2%	19.1%	8.1%	3.2%	1.4%
28	Switzerland	D	100.0%	100.0%	41.3%	16.4%	6.1%	2.2%	0.8%
29	Senegal	K	–	56.1%	24.3%	10.8%	4.9%	2.0%	0.8%
30	Scotland	E	–	39.1%	14.6%	6.6%	3.0%	1.4%	0.6%
31	South Africa	J	–	100.0%	33.5%	12.4%	5.0%	1.6%	0.6%
32	Algeria	A	–	70.7%	27.2%	11.2%	4.2%	1.5%	0.6%
33	Iran	C	18.2%	40.3%	18.0%	7.9%	3.3%	1.4%	0.6%
34	Congo DR	G	–	27.3%	12.5%	5.8%	2.7%	1.1%	0.5%
35	Paraguay	B	–	79.1%	28.6%	10.4%	3.7%	1.3%	0.4%
36	Ecuador	I	–	30.9%	12.5%	5.3%	2.3%	0.9%	0.4%
37	New Zealand	C	–	62.1%	24.1%	8.4%	3.1%	1.2%	0.4%
38	Curaçao	I	–	18.2%	7.4%	3.1%	1.4%	0.5%	0.2%
39	Jordan	A	–	7.2%	3.1%	1.4%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%
40	Türkiye	B	–	10.0%	4.2%	1.8%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%
41	Panama	H	–	3.2%	1.3%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
42	Saudi Arabia	F	–	17.8%	6.8%	1.9%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%
43	Iraq	K	–	2.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	–
44	Uzbekistan	G	–	1.6%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	–	–
45	Czechia	J	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
46	Haiti	E	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
47	Qatar	D	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
48	Tunisia	L	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Method: Each remaining group match is drawn from a Poisson model built on our stored match probabilities (completed matches are locked to their real result). Group standings then feed a knockout bracket — the 12 group winners, 12 runners-up and 8 best third-placed teams — resolved from team strength ratings fitted to the same model. The bracket uses a balanced seeding model; real FIFA knockout pairings are substituted once published. Last updated 25 Jun 2026, 04:00 over 20,000 simulations.