World Cup 2026

Tournament Simulator

Who wins World Cup 2026?

We run a Monte Carlo simulation of every remaining match 20,000 times, using our model's match probabilities. Each row is a nation's chance to reach every stage and lift the trophy.

Favourite

USA

9.3% to win

#	Team	Grp	1st	R32	R16	QF	SF	Final	🏆 ▾
1	USA	B	100.0%	100.0%	66.7%	40.5%	25.2%	15.2%	9.3%
2	France	K	100.0%	100.0%	70.0%	41.4%	23.2%	12.6%	7.0%
3	Argentina	A	100.0%	100.0%	70.1%	36.4%	20.2%	12.1%	6.5%
4	Netherlands	L	100.0%	100.0%	52.6%	30.4%	19.3%	10.0%	5.1%
5	Belgium	C	100.0%	100.0%	55.0%	32.1%	17.5%	9.3%	5.1%
6	England	H	100.0%	100.0%	59.2%	32.9%	17.3%	10.0%	5.0%
7	Mexico	J	100.0%	100.0%	57.0%	31.8%	15.7%	8.2%	4.5%
8	Canada	D	–	100.0%	50.6%	27.4%	14.9%	8.5%	4.4%
9	Morocco	E	–	100.0%	49.4%	26.7%	13.9%	8.0%	4.0%
10	Ivory Coast	I	–	100.0%	47.4%	26.2%	16.0%	7.7%	3.6%
11	Spain	F	100.0%	100.0%	57.1%	28.9%	14.2%	6.8%	3.6%
12	Cape Verde Islands	F	–	100.0%	51.8%	23.9%	12.2%	6.0%	3.1%
13	Brazil	E	100.0%	100.0%	54.8%	25.2%	14.3%	6.7%	3.1%
14	Portugal	G	–	100.0%	53.5%	24.4%	12.3%	6.0%	3.0%
15	Germany	I	100.0%	100.0%	52.2%	25.8%	12.3%	6.6%	3.0%
16	Colombia	G	100.0%	100.0%	55.5%	26.9%	12.4%	6.0%	3.0%
17	Bosnia & Herzegovina	D	–	100.0%	45.0%	23.9%	11.8%	5.5%	2.8%
18	Austria	A	–	100.0%	53.4%	31.5%	14.6%	6.2%	2.8%
19	Egypt	C	–	100.0%	48.3%	21.7%	10.8%	5.3%	2.6%
20	Japan	L	–	100.0%	47.8%	22.4%	10.0%	5.3%	2.5%
21	Norway	K	–	100.0%	43.0%	21.0%	9.0%	4.4%	2.2%
22	Australia	B	–	100.0%	46.5%	19.6%	9.0%	3.9%	1.8%
23	Croatia	H	–	100.0%	46.6%	26.0%	11.2%	4.3%	1.7%
24	Ghana	H	–	100.0%	45.6%	19.7%	9.6%	4.0%	1.7%
25	Congo DR	G	–	100.0%	40.8%	18.9%	8.0%	3.9%	1.7%
26	Sweden	L	–	100.0%	44.5%	20.3%	8.7%	3.9%	1.7%
27	Senegal	K	–	100.0%	33.3%	14.0%	6.1%	2.7%	1.2%
28	Ecuador	I	–	100.0%	42.5%	17.0%	7.7%	2.9%	1.1%
29	Algeria	A	–	100.0%	52.1%	22.4%	8.1%	2.9%	1.1%
30	Switzerland	D	100.0%	100.0%	47.9%	20.1%	7.3%	2.5%	0.9%
31	South Africa	J	–	100.0%	30.0%	11.2%	4.1%	1.4%	0.5%
32	Paraguay	B	–	100.0%	29.9%	9.6%	3.3%	1.4%	0.4%
33	Iraq	K	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
34	South Korea	J	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
35	Jordan	A	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
36	Curaçao	I	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
37	Tunisia	L	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
38	Czechia	J	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
39	Türkiye	B	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
40	Panama	H	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
41	Uzbekistan	G	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
42	Iran	C	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
43	Uruguay	F	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
44	New Zealand	C	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
45	Saudi Arabia	F	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
46	Scotland	E	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
47	Qatar	D	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
48	Haiti	E	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Method: Each remaining group match is drawn from a Poisson model built on our stored match probabilities (completed matches are locked to their real result). Group standings then feed a knockout bracket — the 12 group winners, 12 runners-up and 8 best third-placed teams — resolved from team strength ratings fitted to the same model. The bracket uses a balanced seeding model; real FIFA knockout pairings are substituted once published. Last updated 9 Aug 2026, 05:45 over 20,000 simulations.